The 2022 NFL season opens up on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosting the current Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. The Bills are currently +600 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +750, the second lowest. The defending champion Rams? Not too short themselves, coming in at +1100 (fourth lowest). The Chiefs (+1000) are third, and the Green Bay Packers round out the top 5 at +1200. This is interesting because every single team in BetMGM’s top 5 is in my simulation top 5, except for the Rams. Go figure.
If you’re unfamiliar with my work, I have created an NFL betting model that feeds into a simulator I have built to project how the upcoming NFL season will most likely play out based on 100,000 simulations. The results produce how likely a team is to win the Super Bowl, their conference, win their division, etc. Since every game of the NFL season is being simulated, every outcome can be quantified. If you want to know how likely your team is to make the playoffs, the simulator has it. On the other end of things, the results can tell you how likely your team is to pick first overall in next year’s NFL Draft.
My focus is mostly on what sportsbook offer in the NFL futures market, which is essentially everything I listed above. The cool thing, though, about these results is that even if you’re not interested in betting, it’s something that can be of value when talking amongst friends. But if you are interested in betting into the NFL futures market let’s talk about some strategies first.
First thing first, shop around for the best price. There are many options out there, and if you’re going to tie up money for a few months, you might as well be doing so at the best price. Let’s be honest, when betting on anything in sports, you want the best price. Second, I mentioned it, but you’ll be tying up money for multiple months, which can be an issue. Often, these futures have a low chance of winning, so tying up any significant capital isn’t wise for some. Personally, I don’t like tying up futures for that long as the futures market opens up during the season and there are plenty of chances to build a portfolio over the season. I’ll likely keep things small, definitely with Super Bowl or conference futures and I’ve already put in some division/playoff/win totals bets here. And as always, please manage your bankroll and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
So without me blabbering on any further, let’s dive into the results of the simulations.
Super Bowl odds and projections
Updated on Sept. 7
|
Team |
Wins |
Playoffs |
Win SB |
Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11.5 |
88.7% |
9.5% |
+600 |
|
|
11.4 |
90.1% |
9.3% |
+1200 |
|
|
10.6 |
77.4% |
6.9% |
+1000 |
|
|
10.5 |
78.8% |
6.5% |
+750 |
|
|
10.2 |
73.3% |
6.0% |
+2000 |
|
|
10.1 |
74.9% |
5.2% |
+2000 |
|
|
10.0 |
70.0% |
5.2% |
+1100 |
|
|
9.8 |
66.5% |
4.5% |
+1600 |
|
|
9.7 |
64.0% |
4.1% |
+4000 |
|
|
9.7 |
59.9% |
4.1% |
+1400 |
|
|
9.4 |
57.5% |
4.0% |
+2000 |
|
|
9.5 |
58.7% |
3.9% |
+2000 |
|
|
9.4 |
55.9% |
3.6% |
+2500 |
|
|
9.4 |
58.7% |
3.5% |
+4000 |
|
|
9.4 |
54.7% |
3.5% |
+1600 |
|
|
9.1 |
49.5% |
2.9% |
+4000 |
|
|
8.1 |
36.2% |
2.9% |
+4000 |
|
|
8.8 |
42.3% |
2.6% |
+4000 |
|
|
8.5 |
43.5% |
2.4% |
+4000 |
|
|
8.6 |
42.3% |
2.2% |
+3000 |
|
|
8.1 |
31.8% |
1.8% |
+8000 |
|
|
8.0 |
27.7% |
1.6% |
+3000 |
|
|
7.5 |
23.0% |
1.0% |
+12500 |
|
|
7.1 |
15.9% |
0.7% |
+8000 |
|
|
6.8 |
13.2% |
0.6% |
+15000 |
|
|
6.8 |
12.6% |
0.5% |
+12500 |
|
|
6.3 |
9.3% |
0.4% |
+15000 |
|
|
6.2 |
8.1% |
0.3% |
+20000 |
|
|
5.9 |
6.0% |
0.2% |
+25000 |
|
|
5.9 |
5.8% |
0.2% |
+15000 |
|
|
5.0 |
2.4% |
0.1% |
+30000 |
|
|
4.8 |
1.4% |
0.0% |
+15000 |
Los Angeles Rams
As noted to start off this piece, my model has the Rams coming in as the seventh most likely team to win the Super Bowl. The loss of Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr., Robert Woods, and Andrew Whitworth loom large for this Rams team that isn’t all that deep. Sure, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Jalen Ramsey return, but they have some pretty big shoes to fill as defending champs. Throw in Stafford’s elbow issues in training camp and the doubts are starting to mount. I can’t come close to thinking about backing the Rams at the current futures prices. My model still projects the Rams as a very good team but considering how tough their schedule is, and how tough the division is, repeating will be hard. In fact, no one has repeated as Super Bowl champions since Tom Brady’s Patriots back in Super Bowl 38 and 39. This year will be Super Bowl 57.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are a really intriguing team as they’re fifth in Super Bowl odds but come in at the No. 2 spot in my simulations. The Packers have an insanely easy schedule which puts them in a great position to grab the No.1 seed in the NFC and a bye. Yes, the NFC traveling through Lambeau hasn’t gone well for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack over the last decade, but this is still a team with an elite quarterback. Throw in a defense that could be top 5 by the season’s end, and you’re cooking with gas. I’m not sprinting to get to the window for any Super Bowl or NFC tickets, but if things start slow with trips to Minnesota and Tampa Bay in the first three weeks, Green Bay could fall into a range of a much more appealing price.
Dallas Cowboys
Of course, let’s talk about the Dallas Cowboys. My model is much more bullish on the Cowboys than the betting market and anyone that I’ve spoken to in the betting industry that I respect. The injury to Tyron Smith is a huge one but signing Jason Peters will certainly help. Peters, despite being 39 last season graded 21st out of 83 offensive tackles per Pro Football Focus last season. If he can produce anywhere close to that level this year, the Cowboys’ offense should be fine. I’ve mentioned this in previous work, but a lot of the bullishness about the Cowboys stems from my being bearish on the Eagles, and mostly Jalen Hurts. Again, the Cowboys have the best quarterback in the division and should have a defense that can slow down offenses enough to win many games. The current Cowboys prices are a bit too much and again, they have Tampa Bay and Cincinnati to start the season. If I want to grab a position, there could be more favorable prices in a couple of weeks.
AFC Breakdown
All this NFC talk, let’s get to the AFC. The AFC is absolutely loaded, so if you think my projections hate your favorite team and their Super Bowl odds are too low, it’s probably more because the conference is very deep thus, making it difficult to come out on top. Unless of course, it’s the Titans. Yes, I’m very bearish on the Titans heading into the season. My model currently has 11 of the 16 teams in the AFC rated as a league average team or better. For reference, I have just nine teams in the NFC rated that high. While I’m not certain there are a ton of “elite” teams in the conference, there are many good ones, and the above figures aren’t counting a Browns team that could be in the playoff race when Deshaun Watson returns in Week 12. The only teams I currently have any bullish futures on are the Colts and Chiefs, and the Chiefs are just to make the playoffs. The AFC will be crazy this season and opportunities will present themselves all season long so stay patient.
Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of those Colts, my model thinks they’re the most undervalued team in the NFL heading into the 2022 season. I think there is value on them to win the playoffs (I already bet that here, to win the AFC South, to go over their win total, and the list goes on. They’re likely to be my only preseason Super Bowl Future bet which is funny because it would be so totally Colts to lose to Houston to open the season. But nevertheless, the Colts are the best team in the weakest division in the AFC, the schedule sets up decently for them, and Matt Ryan will be an upgrade over Carson Wentz when the Colts should have made the playoffs last year. I think the Colts have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC this year and definitely the No. 2 so for that, they’re worth putting a bet on to win the Super Bowl at the current price of +2000. And remember, always shop around for the best price to maximize your winnings.
Super Bowl bets
Indianapolis Colts to win Super Bowl +2000 (risk 0.1 units) — Bet made on 9/7
(Photo of Aaron Rodgers: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)