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The Green Bay Packers have won this division each of the last four seasons. They’re the only team in the NFC North with a proven quarterback, and a recent history that includes a good deal of winning. Once Brett Favre took over as starting quarterback in 1992, the Packers’ decade-plus as an irrelevant franchise ended and they reasserted their place as one of the best franchises in the NFL.

They have been a perennial playoff team for most of the last 30 years and have run roughshod over their division foes. The Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — for those who still remember the NFC Central — have had their moments but this division has mostly belonged to the Packers since Fox became one of the NFL’s main television partners.

With no Davante Adams this season, and Aaron Rodgers partaking in psychedelics at nearly 40 years old, the Packers are still the clear favorites. When Rodgers shouted “I own you” to the Soldier Field crowd, the message was just as relevant to the people on the Michigan/Canada border, and in the communities surrounding those 10,000 lakes in Minnesota.

There’s a strong defense and running game supporting Rodgers and the Packers’ reshaped receiving corps. They should walk to a fourth-consecutive NFC North championship, unless a young quarterback decides that it’s his time to shine.

Surprise alternate outcome: The Chicago Bears’ offensive line isn’t as bad as you think

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That Cleveland Browns Week 3 game was awful last year. The Bears lost by 20, and it looked like the offense was fishing with pool noodles the entire afternoon. They managed to gain just 48 yards of total offense and put six points on the board that day. That game, and the Week 7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, were disasters that made those who watched the Bears believe that the offensive line was ruining Justin Fields.

However, the unit was not nearly as bad as it looked in those two horror-flick-worthy performances. Per ESPN stats, the Bears’ offensive line was ranked 11th in run-block win rate and sixth in pass-block win rate. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bears’ offensive line at No. 22, and the first sentence in their explanation was: “There were games this season in which the Chicago offensive line couldn’t block anybody, but overall it wasn’t as bad as those low moments.

The word out of Bears camp is that Fields is much improved this year and he showed it in the preseason, especially in the final game against the Browns. Changes were made to the Chicago offensive line with Lucas Patrick at center — there’s a good chance that he will start Week 1 even after the thumb injury — also Teven Jenkins was moved inside to right guard and rookie Braxton Jones will start at left tackle. This group doesn’t have to be the best in the NFL but if it shows improvement from last season, Fields could look on Sundays like the player he was on Saturdays in 2019 and 2020 for Ohio State. If he gets enough support to play like that, the 2018 No. 2 overall high school player in America could be in line for a Patrick Mahomes/Lamar Jackson type of Year 2, and that could vault the Bears to the top of the NFC North.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Season 10 of my NFL picks. 

When I started making picks in 2013, things were different. Tom Brady was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the Bengals were coming off a division title and the 49ers were on the cusp of getting rid of a quarterback who had just led them to an NFC title game. Wait, did I say things were different? Because I guess I meant that things are actually still exactly the same. 

The only difference between now and then is that we now know there are psychedelic drugs in South America that can help you win MVP (thanks to Aaron Rodgers for that knowledge). You can judge Rodgers all you want for taking ayahuasca, but I’m not going to judge him for going on a South American drug bender and that’s mainly because I’ve done some of my best work after doing weird things in South America.

Rodgers might have reached a higher level of spiritual consciousness this offseason, but I do not think he’ll be reaching the highest level in of the NFL, AKA I will not be picking his team to win the Super Bowl this year. 

So who am I going to pick?

That’s a great question and you can find the answer by clicking here to see my predictions for the entire 2022 NFL season. If you click over, you’ll see my final record predictions for all 32 teams plus who I’m picking to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. If the game was being played in the astral realm, I’d pick the Packers to win it all, but it’s not, it’s being played in Phoenix. 

Anyway, before we get to the Week 1 picks, I have good news for the nine of you who emailed in and demanded to CBS that I do more this season. Not only will I be writing this weekly picks column, but I’ll also be podcasting a lot this year. As a matter of fact, you should go ahead and circle every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on your calendar from now until February, because that’s when I’ll be joining Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson on the Pick Six Podcast (Click here to check it out). If that’s still not enough of me, I’ll also be joining CBS Sports HQ every Tuesday morning (8:45 a.m. ET) from now until February to talk about my weekly picks, so remember to set your alarm and be sure to bookmark this link so you can watch online. 

Alright, I think that’s enough self-promotion for now, let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 1 picks

Buffalo at L.A. Rams

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) 

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-2.5

I’ve spent the past month reading about Matthew Stafford’s ailing elbow and after doing some research, I think I finally know why it’s hurting: It’s definitely his Super Bowl ring. Sure, I’m not a doctor and I know nothing about medicine, but it has to be the ring. I mean, have you seen that thing? 

The Rams got their rings in July and based on what I’ve seen of the ring, it appears to weigh as much as a large cat and I’m 98% sure it’s worth more than my car. 

Your arm would be also be hurting if you tried to wear that ring. 

As last season’s Super Bowl winner, the Rams are hosting the opener this year and hosting has been a huge advantage over the years. The reigning champion has been hosting the Thursday opener since 2004 and in that time, they’ve gone 14-2. Not to mention, Sean McVay is one of the best opening day coaches in NFL history. The Rams coach is 5-0 all-time in Week 1 games and his teams have won those games by an average of 16.6 points. 

Of course, the Rams were favored in their five other openers under McVay, but they won’t be favored in this one. If you want to beat the Rams it helps to have a mobile quarterback (check), a defense that can force turnovers (the Bills forced the third-most in the NFL last season) and a pass-rusher who can get after the quarterback. 

The Bills didn’t exactly have that third thing last season, but they’re hoping that Von Miller will be able to fill that role in 2022. If you start sacking Stafford, the Rams offense starts to fall apart and that’s why Miller could be a huge factor on Thursday night. The Rams went 9-1 in games where Stafford was sacked zero or one time last season, but just 3-4 in games where he was sacked two or more times. 

This is practically a home game for Miller, who will be playing this third straight game at SoFi under three different circumstances. He played for the home team in the NFC title game, he played at a “neutral” site in the Super Bowl and he’ll be on the visiting team for the opener. From now on, if Miller is playing a game at SoFi Stadium I’m just going to assume that his team is going to win. 

The pick: Bills 34-27 over Rams

Cleveland at Carolina

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Carolina Panthers
-2.5

I don’t normally put a lot of stock into revenge games, but I’m completely buying the revenge angle in this game. I mean, when it comes to Baker Mayfield, I haven’t seen anyone this desperate to get revenge since Inigo Montoya went after the six-fingered man  in “The Princess Bride.”

I have no idea what Baker Mayfield did this offseason, but my guess is that he spent the past eight weeks sitting in a dark room watching film on the Browns so that he’ll be able to destroy them. He might also have snuck in a viewing or two of “The Princess Bride,” but I can’t say for sure. 

Although the Panthers weren’t a great team last year, they actually have a pretty stacked roster. Not only is Christian McCaffrey finally healthy, but they upgraded at two key positions on the offensive line with the additions of Bradley Bozeman (center) and Austin Corbett (guard).  

I will admit that I thought briefly about picking the Browns in this game, but then I remembered that they haven’t won a regular season opener SINCE 2004! In the 17 seasons since then, they’ve gone 0-16-1 in openers. (To put this in perspective, every other NFL team has won at least FIVE openers in that span). Basically, I feel like it’s in my best interest to keep picking against the Browns in every opener they play for the rest of time. 

The pick: Panthers 19-16 over Browns

New England at Miami

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
-3

I never thought I’d say this about Bill Belichick, but I have no idea what he’s doing anymore. Instead of naming an offensive coordinator to replace Josh McDaniels, Belichick has decided to leave the position open this season. Belichick is always vague about his plans and he’s been even more vague this offseason, which I didn’t even think was possible.

Apparently, Belichick’s plan is to rely on several assistants, including Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Now, I’m not sure if Belichick was watching the last time those two guys coached, but if he was, then he would know that Judge and Patricia are the last guys you want to put in charge of anything. At least, that’s what Giants and Lions fans have told me. 

That being said, what if they’re not actually in charge of anything because Belichick is really the one in charge of everything? My theory is that the Patriots are now a one-man coaching staff and that everyone else is just on the sideline for show. It’s Belichick vs. everyone in 2022. 

Belichick has been changing everything this year and that even includes the Patriots’ travel plans for Week 1. 

Instead of flying to Miami the day before the game, the Patriots are flying down a full FIVE days before the game so they can get acclimated to the heat and humidity. The Patriots are 2-7 in their past nine trips to Miami and I’m not sure spending five nights on South Beach is going to fix their problems. The last time I spent five nights on South Beach, I think I was only sober for one of them. Also, I saw a shirtless Ed Orgeron and let me just tell you that if the Patriots see a shirtless Ed Orgeron, it’s not going to help anyone play better. 

Now that I’ve second-guessed everything Belichick is doing this offseason from his coaching decisions to his travel plans, there’s a 100% chance it will blow up in my face if I pick against him, so I’m not going to pick against him. I think the Dolphins offense will eventually be good, but I think it struggles in Mike McDaniels’ first game as head coach. 

The pick: Patriots 20-17 over Dolphins

Kansas City at Arizona 

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-4.5

Tom Brady skipped 11 days of training camp and Aaron Rodgers went on a South American bender, and yet, somehow, it might be Kyler Murray who had the weirdest offseason of any NFL quarterback. In case you haven’t noticed, Murray seems to have a somewhat dysfunctional relationship with the Cardinals. At this point, it’s basically the Kim Kardashian-Pete Davidson relationship of the NFL world: Everything might seem like it’s going well, but I’m just not sure it’s going to last.  

Back in February, Murray deleted the Cardinals from his Instagram and if you’ve ever been deleted from someone’s Instagram then you already know that the only way to get that person back is to give them $230.5 million, so that’s what the Cardinals did. 

So the money clearly fixed the relationship, right? Wrong.  

The Cardinals decided to include a homework clause in Murray’s new contract and let me just say that no one likes homework or homework clauses.  

The clause was eventually taken out of his contract, but the problem for Murray is that the Cardinals wouldn’t have asked for one if they didn’t think he needed it. I think what I’m trying to say here is that I’ve already spent more time writing this pick than Kyler has spent studying film for this game. 

The relationship between Murray and the Cardinals feels like it’s at the tipping point and a few ugly losses to start the season could lead to a full implosion and those losses might actually happen. With the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams in the first three weeks of the season, the Cardinals could be in three shootouts to start the year and they won’t have DeAndre Hopkins for any of those games.

Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with all of this, but they also have to play against Patrick Mahomes, who has never lost a regular-season opener. In four seasons as the Chiefs’ starter, he’s 4-0 in Week 1 and the Chiefs have scored an average of 36.25 points in those games. I would predict Kansas City to score 36.25 points on Sunday, but I’m told that’s not mathematically possible in the NFL, so I’ll go with 37. 

The pick: Chiefs 37-27 over Cardinals

Green Bay at Minnesota 

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-1.5

If you’ve ever wondered what it takes to be an MVP-caliber quarterback in the NFL, I have some good news for you: Aaron Rodgers revealed the secret this offseason. 

Apparently, all you have to do is have a psychedelic experience in South America. Rodgers did that this offseason and as far as I know, he is now the only NFL QB who has obtained omnipresent, super-galactic oneness. 

If Rodgers says it works, it clearly works, because he’s won two straight MVPs. Also, this would explain why Kirk Cousins has never won an MVP. I mean, if we had to rank every NFL quarterback on the possibility that they would go on a South American psychedelic bender at some point in their life, Kirk Cousins would rank dead last. 

Although Cousins didn’t do any psychedelics this offseason, I actually think he’s going to be good this year. For one, he finally has a head coach who doesn’t hate his guts, which seems like a positive step forward for him. 

Also, Cousins will be in charge of a high-powered offense that includes Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Although I’m picking the Packers to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC this year, I’m NOT picking them to win this game and that’s because I think it’s going to take a week or two for them to adjust to life without Davante Adams. 

The pick: Vikings 26-23 over Packers

Tampa Bay at Dallas

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2

The Cowboys might want to think about complaining to someone at the NFL about how the schedule gets made, because this is the second straight year that they’ve had to open the season against Tom Brady, which is pretty much a nightmare situation for them. The problem for the Cowboys is that they’ve NEVER beaten Tom Brady.

In six career games, not only is Brady 6-0 against Dallas, but he’s thrown for 1,733 yards, along with 14 touchdowns. If Brady averaged those numbers over the course of a 17-game season, that would equal out to 4,910 yards and 40 touchdowns. Basically, the Cowboys have no idea how to stop Brady, and I don’t think that’s going to change Sunday. Yes, Brady did take 11 days off in the middle of training camp, but I’m guessing he made plans to do that as soon as he saw that he was playing the Cowboys in Week 1. To be honest, I’m somewhat surprised he didn’t skip all of training camp just to make a point about how easy it is for him to beat the Cowboys. 

These two teams are basically a mirror version of each other: I was going to mention the Cowboys offensive line woes before making my pick, but the Buccaneers also have offensive line woes. I was going to mention that the Buccaneers have a key receiver coming off an ACL injury (Chris Godwin), but the Cowboys also have a key receiver coming off an ACL injury (Michael Gallup), so this all comes down to Brady. 

Tom Brady is 45, he spent six weeks in retirement, he skipped 11 days of practice, he spent half his offseason tweeting out underwear ads and I’m not actually sure if he’s gotten any practice in over the past month, but it doesn’t matter because he’s playing the Cowboys and Brady doesn’t lose to the Cowboys. 

The pick: Buccaneers 30-27 over Cowboys

NFL Week 1 picks: All the rest

Saints 24-17 over Falcons
49ers 27-17 over Bears
Bengals 23-20 over Steelers
Eagles 31-24 over Lions
Ravens 30-20 over Jets
Commanders 23-16 over Jaguars
Colts 24-16 over Texans
Titans 20-13 over Giants
Chargers 30-20 over Raiders
Broncos 31-17 over Seahawks

Last Week 

Best pick: If you just read through these picks while thinking, “Wow, I wish I could read this guy every day,” you’re in luck, because you can! I also write the daily NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and you can subscribe by clicking here and entering your email address. By the way, this is usually the part where I brag to you about my best pick from the preceding week, but since there weren’t any regular-season games last week, that means there’s no best pick for this section.

Worst pick: Although I’ll have plenty of “worst picks” for this section starting next week, I have nothing for you this week. Actually, wait, yes I do. Since this is the worst pick section, this is the perfect time to tell you that I am apparently the worst waffle picker in the history of parenting. Every morning, we lay out my daughter’s waffles and I’m supposed to pick the one she wants to eat and I am somehow O-FOR-ETERNITY in this game. I pick out a waffle and she says “nope” and this goes on and on and until she gets so bored of the game that she just picks out her own waffle. 

If I actually started taking bets on this, I would lose all my money. Basically, I need to hit on my NFL bets so I can fund my waffle gambling.

Final 2021 picks record (including playoffs)

Straight-up: 183-101-1 (.644) (Ranked second overall at CBSSports.com)
Against the spread: 147-135-3 (.521)

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably watching “The Princess Bride” while researching how to beat a toddler at waffle gambling.

The Packers have the substantial benefit of playing in the NFC North, and it’s very possible that when this season is all wrapped up, their record, currently projected at 11-6 by DraftKings, won’t look that out of the ordinary.

That said, the Packers’ offseason was a hallucinogenic trip of bizarre occurrences, and a repeat of their elite performance from 2021 is anything but guaranteed. While most analysts are bullish on their prospects, Green Bay is going to need an immediate impact from several rookies, some injury luck, and a complete turnaround on special teams.

The offense

No unit has experienced more turnover than the offense. Even the ever-reliable Aaron Rodgers spent much of the offseason in either contract drama, or what can only be described as “Aaron Rodgers drama.” On the contract front, Aaron teased retirement before agreeing to a three-year, $150.8 million extension, with an odd structure that costs the Packers more the longer he plays.

Rodgers also has a new girlfriend — who, to be clear, does not identify as a witch — named Blu of Earth, and admitted to experimenting with ayahuasca, a strong, hallucinogenic tea, on the Aubrey Marcus Podcast. Rodgers has been flirting with alternative, unscientific medicine since the revelation that he was not vaccinated last year, and is apparently now fully committed. While Rodgers should be free to do whatever he wants in his spare time, his distrust of conventional medicine did cost Green Bay a win last year when he missed the Kansas City game with Covid, and while Dock Ellis once famously threw a perfect game on LSD, that experience is probably not the best model for a modern quarterback.

More importantly, the Packers enter 2022 without Davante Adams, who chose to join his college quarterback Derek Carr with the Raiders. Adams is one of the league’s best receivers, and received a league-high share of his team’s overall targets last year. The Packers not only lacked an heir apparent at the receiver position, but they also lost deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Kansas City, making their only real holdovers Allen Lazard and an aging Randall Cobb. Replacing Adams’ production is essentially impossible, and while they did bring in the perpetually disappointing Sammy Watkins as a free agent from Kansas City, they will mostly be hoping for quick development from second-rounder Christian Watsonand fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs, who was the talk of Packers training camp and the preseason. Green Bay decided not to add a tight end this offseason, relying on the return of Robert Tonyan from a torn ACL to boost the position.

The offensive line suffered nearly as much turnover as the receivers group. Green Bay is fortunate that budding star Elgton Jenkins is already off the PUP list after suffering a torn ACL last year. Jenkins can play any position on the line, and his presence helps mitigate injuries along the line. That said, the Packers are still suffering greatly from one injury, that being David Bakhtiari, who suffered a torn ACL of his own two seasons ago, and has suffered from complications during his rehab making his return anything but certain. Bakhtiari did come off the PUP list and returned to practice on Sunday, Aug. 21, but whether he’ll be ready come Week 1 is still up in the air.

The lingering injuries and the departure of center/guard Lucas Patrick to the Bears may open up a spot for rookie fourth-rounder Zach Tom, who was impressive in camp this year. If nothing else, Tom and fellow rookie Sean Rhyan should bring much-needed depth, as injuries to the offensive line undercut the offense against the 49ers in the playoffs last year.

Between the receivers and the line, the passing game received a complete makeover in the offseason, and while Rodgers brings a certain stable floor, the ceiling on this team is anyone’s guess.

Defense

The defense suffered one major loss, as Za’Darius Smith crossed the border to join the Vikings (along with slot corner Chandon Sullivan), but the development of Rashan Gary into one of the league’s premiere pass rushers filled this void last season, and should do so again in 2022. While the team did add fifth-round rookie JJ Enagbare to back up Gary and Preston Smith on the edge, the Packers also spent premium draft capital on the interior, selecting the Georgia duo of Quay Walker (linebacker) and Devonte Wyatt (defensive tackle). Green Bay has struggled against the run through most of the Rodgers era, and Walker and Wyatt, plus free agent defensive tackle Jarran Reed, should turn this weakness into a strength.

The only other major addition on defense comes in the form of cornerback Jaire Alexander, who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. The Packers replaced their star corner last year with Rasul Douglas, but the two of them have only played together once, in the playoff loss to San Francisco. With both now healthy, few teams can boast of such a significant upgrade in the secondary.

The 2021 Packers defense was only mediocre by advanced stats like DVOA and EPA, and they still lack depth at some key positions, but their starters are among the league’s elite, and there’s a good chance they finish in the top 10, if not better.

Special teams

The other big factor in the Packers’ playoff loss last season was a complete breakdown of special teams, resulting in a critical blocked punt touchdown and a blocked field goal. Special teams gaffes plagued the Packers all year, manifesting in missed kicks, poor blocking, incompetent decisions on whether to field punts or kicks, and inexplicable fumbles.

As a result, special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton was let go, replaced by Rich Bisaccia, formerly of the Raiders, and coordinator of many a great special teams unit. Gone also is punter Corey Bojorquez, who started with a bang, but tailed off noticeably as the weather cooled. Bojorquez also seemed to struggle with holding, and the team decided to move on to the reliable if unexciting Pat O’Donnell, formerly of the Bears. Long snapper Steven Wirtel was also found to be part of the problem and was also released in favor of rookie Jack Coco.

The Packers ranked dead last in special teams last year per DVOA, and seemed to create at least one game-changing blunder per week. They’ve turned over nearly every major contributor responsible for their struggles and should be better for it.

Coaching

While Matt LaFleur returns for his fourth season as head coach and primary offensive play caller, the rest of the staff was raided by competitors, and so there are a few new faces and important promotions that could have a major impact. Denver replaced former head coach Vic Fangio with Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, while the Bears snagged former quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy for their offensive coordinator position.

LaFleur chose to fill the OC role internally by promoting another highly sought-after assistant: Adam Stenavich. Stenavich has served as the teams’ offensive line coach since 2019, and over that time the Packers have consistently fielded one of the league’s elite units. Even when stalwarts like David Bakhtiari have missed time, the line has rarely missed a beat, and the Packers’ development process has been second-to-none.

Retaining Stenavich was an important part of the offseason, but given the turnover on the line, they risk taking a step back under new coordinator Luke Butkus. Stenavich will undoubtedly stay involved as it really is LaFleur’s offense to call, but some regression is likely.

Replacing Getsy is the familiar Tom Clements, who served in various roles, including quarterbacks coach, for the Packers from 2006 through 2016 and was instrumental in the development of Aaron Rodgers from raw prospect into all-time great. With Jordan Love entering his third season, Clements will be tasked with accelerating his development.

Finally, I touched on Rich Bisaccia earlier, but it’s hard to overstate just how large of an upgrade he is. The 2021 Packers were bad on special teams in the splashy ways that show up in highlight packages, but they also failed in executing the subtle fundamentals. They frequently failed to line up properly in blocking, returners would allow themselves to be strung out horizontally, and sloppy penalties were the norm. On the game-winning Robbie Gould field goal that sent Green Bay home in the playoffs last year, the Packers only had 10 men on the field. It’s hard to imagine a more fitting end to that season.

The overall impact

The Packers are still run by one of the league’s best offensive minds and one of the game’s best quarterbacks. They’ve built a talented defense, and managed to retain the most important contributors (aside from Davante Adams) from a year ago.

But there’s also reason for some skepticism given the massive turnover in the receiving corps and injuries to the offensive line. Rodgers will be working with a lot of new skill position players, and he is famously finicky about his pass catchers.

That said, some regression of offense is likely to be offset by an improvement on special teams and a fully loaded defense. The Packers did a nice job reloading for one of their last runs with Rodgers, but they’ll need some luck, and some quick development from the rookies, to bring home another championship.

The 2021 Minnesota Vikings finished 8-9, spurring a change at general manager and head coach. And the replacement general manager and head coach kept the core players mostly intact while still finding new starters — to the tune of 36%.

Indeed, the Vikings may not feel the same with Kevin O’Connell, but the “usual suspects” of Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, etc., return for the 2022 season.

The Vikings newcomers are primarily on defense, probably a byproduct of the team surrendering more points in the final two minutes of halves to opponents last year than any franchise in the last two decades. Minnesota’s defense needed a facelift, and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, along with Kevin O’Connell and Ed Donatell, provided one.

Compared to the last half of the 2021 season, these are the Vikings new starters:

• Jonathan Bullard or Ross Blacklock (DE)
• Camryn Bynum (S)
• Jordan Hicks (LB)
• Danielle Hunter (EDGE)
• Ed Ingram (RG)
• Harrison Phillips (NT)
• Irv Smith (TE)
• Za’Darius Smith (EDGE)

Of course, Hunter and Irv Smith aren’t new-new, but they did miss the second half of the 2021 campaign. Irv Smith missed the entire season.

There are 11 starters on each side of the ball, so the 8 ÷ 22 = 36.3%.

Quietly, Jonathan Bullard has emerged as a contender to start Week 1 against the Packers in “Armon Watts’ old spot.” Minnesota also traded for Ross Blacklock last week, presumably to start for Watts or to provide DL depth.

Camryn Bynum shined when afforded the opportunity as a rookie, filling in admirably for Harrison Smith versus the Baltimore Ravens and thereafter in spots. The Vikings drafted Lewis Cine in April to perhaps oust Bynum from the starting job, but that has not occurred yet.

Jordan Hicks found his way to Minnesota as a free agent from the Arizona Cardinals, where he played oodles of defensive snaps. He’s the “new Anthony Barr” for easy thinking and is as dependable as it gets as an off-ball linebacker.

Then, Danielle Hunter returns after missing 10 games in 2021, his second consecutive season battling serious injury. Turning 28 in October, Hunter hopes to reclaim his 2019 tyrannical form. And Hunter welcomes a new running mate from the Green Bay Packers, Za’Darius Smithwho’s already circled Week 1 as a revenge game.

Harrison Phillipsalso called Horrible Harrytakes over Michael Pierce’s job after Pierce’s two-year experiment in Minnesota flopped, mostly due to injury. Phillips was a fan favorite with the Buffalo Bills and could be poised to truly break out with the Vikings.

On offense, rookie Ed Ingram shanghaied the right guard job this summer, a development Vikings enthusiasts have dreamt about since Steve Hutchinson retired. Ingram won the job so definitively that Adofo-Mensah traded his competition, Jesse Davis, to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a menial draft pick last week.

Irv Smithlike Hunter, is back from injury and should be ready for Week 1. He’s on deck for a robust, oft-advertised “breakout” season in 2022, the fourth straight year folks [especially fantasy football brains] have predicted such a forecast

The Vikings are pegged by sportsbooks around a 9.5-win team in O’Connell’s first year, which would likely be enough for a playoff berth.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).

Aaron Rodgers had already established his first-ballot Hall of Fame credentials, but back-to-back NFL MVP awards certainly added to his legacy.

In the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Rodgers completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 8,414 yards, 85 touchdowns and only nine interceptions combined. During that span, 42 players threw more than nine interceptions.

In winning MVP back-to-back, Rodgers joined just four other players who did it: Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1957-58), Joe Montana (1989-90), Brett Favre (1995-97) and Peyton Manning (2003-04, 2008-09).

But winning three in a row? That’s another thing entirely. Could Rodgers go back-to-back-to-back in 2022?

MORE: QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | Buy NFL tickets

Players with three consecutive NFL MVP awards

That subhead ought to just read “Player with three consecutive NFL MVP awards,” because there has only been one back-to-back-to-back MVP winner: Brett Favre. He was named three times in a row from 1995-97, although he shared the third one with Barry Sanders as the two were tied in the voting.

How did Favre do it?

For starters, he led the league in passing touchdowns each year and ranked near the top in almost all other passing stats.

Of course, Favre also threw at least 13 interceptions each season, but interception rates across the league were higher than they are in today’s NFL.

All this is to say that it is not easy to win three straight MVP awards.

And it may be even harder for Rodgers to do it given how Green Bay’s offense looks heading into the 2022 season.

MORE: Why Packers are Sporting News’ preseason pick to win Super Bowl 57

Can Aaron Rodgers win three straight MVPs?

Can he do it? Sure. He’s a future Hall of Fame quarterback who constantly elevates those around him. But there’s no question that his weapons are not what they have been over the past two seasons.

Last year, Davante Adams, widely regarded as the best receiver in the league, caught 123 of Rodgers’ 366 completions, gained 1,553 of Rodgers’ 4,115 passing yards and hauled in 11 of his 37 passing touchdowns. He is now in Las Vegas catching passes from Derek Carr. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (26 receptions, 430 yards, three touchdowns), is now with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

That leaves Allen Lazard, who caught 40 passes for 513 yards and eight touchdowns, and Randall Cobb, who caught 28 passes for 375 yards and five touchdowns, as the most established returning wide receivers.

PACKERS WR DEPTH CHART: How Doubs, Lazard, Watkins project without Adams

The Packers addressed Adams and Valdes-Scantling’s exits by signing Sammy Watkins and drafting Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. But replacing a receiver of Adams’ caliber is not easily done.

And lacking that top option could be what holds Rodgers back from winning a third straight MVP. When Rodgers was the MVP in 2011, he had Jordy Nelson rack up 1,263 receiving yards and Greg Jennings gain 949 more. When he was MVP in 2014, Rodgers had Nelson and his 1,519 receiving yards, and Cobb, who had 1,287 yards. In 2020 and 2021, Adams was there to record more than 1,300 yards each season.

Rodgers won’t have that type of target in 2022. Cobb hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiving season since 2014, his lone season in four digits. Watkins hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiving season since 2015, also his only time reaching the milestone.

There is upside with Watson and Doubs, certainly. Watson never had a 1,000-yard receiving season with North Dakota State but twice had more than 700 yards and has been touted as a potentially dynamic option with his combination of size and speed. Doubs had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at Nevada and has received rave reviews during training camp.

WHO IS ROMEO DOUBS? Meet the Packers rookie impressing Aaron Rodgers with ‘rare’ training camp

Rodgers can make a lot happen with his ability to read the field, make accurate throws and make things happen in general. But only two quarterbacks going back to 2010 have won MVP without at least one 1,000-yard receiver: Lamar Jackson in 2018 and Tom Brady in 2010. Jackson had the rushing yards to bolster his case.

Brady could be a more realistic model. He had 3,900 passing yards with 36 touchdowns and four interceptions. No receiver had more than 848 yards (Wes Welker) and no one else had more than 706 yards (Deion Branch).

Could Rodgers elevate this group of receivers to the level needed for him to win a third straight MVP? Certainly. But this would undoubtedly be his most challenging path to the award.

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Josh Jackson of the Green Bay Packers doing a “Lambeau Leap” after blocking a punt and scoring a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on September 16, 2018.

On Labor Day the Pittsburgh Steelers put the finishing touches on their 16-man practice squad by signing three more players, including safety Andrew Adams and cornerback Josh Jackson.

Jackson, 26, is a 2018 second-round pick of the Green Bay Packers, selected No. 45 overall out of Iowa. He started 10 of the 16 games in which he appeared as rookie but played a lesser role in 2019-2020. He was traded to the Giants in August 2021 but never appeared in a game for New York. After he was released by the Giants in late October 2021 he spent time with Kansas City, appearing in two games for the Chiefs. He spent this summer with the Cardinals, having signed with Arizona in mid-June.

To date Jackson has appeared in 44 regular-season games (with 15 starts), recording 90 tackles, including two tackles for loss, 12 passes defensed and one fumble recovery, as per Pro Football Reference.

He figures to provide insurance in case of injury to rostered cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon, Cameron Sutton, Levi Wallace and James Pierre. He also has experience playing in the slot, so he could fill in for Arthur Maulet.

He’s one of two cornerbacks on the practice squad, the other being Mark Gilbert, who is the cousin of former four-time first-team All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis and the nephew of former NFL defensive lineman Sean Gilbert.

Gilbert originally signed with the Steelers in May of last year and started the 2021 season on the practice squad. He was poached by the Lions six weeks later and spent the rest of the season with Detroit. The Steelers had the opportunity to get him back after he was waived by the Lions on August 29.

LB Delontae Scott Re-Signed

Meanwhile, last spot on the practice squad went to outside linebacker Delontae Scott, who had been released on August 30 when the Steelers cut down to their 53-man roster.

Scott was originally signed to Pittsburgh’s practice squad on September 7, 2021. He was elevated to the active roster and made his regular-season debut against the Los Angeles Chargers last November. He entered the NFL in 2020, signing with the Packers as an undrafted free agent out of SMU.

The Andy Weidl Effect?

Notably, at least five of the players signed to Pittsburgh’s practice squad have a connection to Andy Weidlincluding aforementioned safety Andrew Adams. Weidel, of course, is Pittsburgh’s new assistant general manager. He was one of six finalists for the general manager job that went to Omar Khan; he came over from the Eagles, where he was vice president of player personnel.

The other practice squad signees who played for the Eagles or spent time in Philly are: safety Elijah Riley, running back Jason Huntley, defensive lineman Renell Wren and rookie guard William Dunkle, who played his college football at San Diego State.

Dunkle — 6-foot-5 and 319 pounds — signed with Philadelphia in early May after going undrafted, but was released on August 14.

NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein has described Dunkle as “an aggressive guard with broad, powerful frame but limited upside…. Athletic opponents will cause him to struggle, but his size, strength and toughness give him a shot to find future starting reps even though his grade and tape is more in line with a backup role.”

It’s that funny time of year that’s not the offseason, not the preseason, but still not yet the season. The final few days before the NFL year kicks off.

It’s prediction season! And Packer fans can officially add another believer to their side.

Peter King, one of the most respected journalists in the NFL, is making no bones about it. He believes the Packers are the cream of the crop in the NFC.

I’m picking the Packers to make their first Super Bowl in 12 years by—isn’t it ironic?—going on the road to get there. Man, wouldn’t that be sweet for Aaron Rodgers.

In his yearly predictions column for NBC Sports, King blew past any wide receiver room worries and spoke incredibly highly of Aaron Rodgers’ focus this year.

Re the Packers: I think a purported weakness, the post-Davante Adams receiver room, won’t be as bad as most think. Green Bay has a cadre of young prove-it receivers who I believe will be mentally whipped into shape by Rodgers as the year progresses, and who will respond well to the patient coaching of Matt LaFleur. It’s a better roster 1 to 53 (including the kicking game, which doomed the Pack last season) with a defense that should be a top-five NFL unit by December.

There’s a rejuvenated quarterback too. Rodgers is one of those guys who loves when he’s doubted. I mean, truly loves it. No Adams now, and Rodgers figures, just watch me. We’ll be fine. That plus his three days in Peru taking psychedelics on his ayahuasca journey … The Rodgers who takes the field this year will be a slightly different guy, a guy who told me he loves football more than he ever has. “I think I just fell in love with it a little deeper,” he said. For Rodgers, there’s much to prove after the disappointments of home playoff losses as the top seed the last two years, though.

It’s worth noting that King did a pre-season tour of all the teams and spent time talking with Rodgers. There are few who have had better access to him and his mentality in the traditional media than King.

King also highlighted the Packers new special teams coach Rich Bisaccia in his yearly award predictions segment. While seeking a few assistant coaches who will make a major difference he singled out Bissacia.

After the Packers lost the divisional game to the Niners on a blocked punt last January, they made Bisaccia (reportedly) the highest-paid special-teams coach in history and gave him the authority to use players from all over the roster to resuscitate the morbid kicking game. He told the players: “The only ‘I’ I want to hear in here is, ‘What can I do to help us win?’” Results should follow.

Unfortunately for Packer fans it’s not all good news, as King has the Packers losing to the Bills in the Super Bowl. But after recent postseason heartbreaks I think Cheesehead nation will take their chances in the big game.

Green Bay Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari is expecting to be ready to play in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.

Bakhtiari, a five-time All-Pro attempting to come back after a third surgery on his knee, was activated off the PUP list on Aug. 21. He finally returned to team drills in practice on Monday, per coach Matt LaFleur, providing the next big step in his long road back to the playing field.

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If able to play in the opener on Sunday, Bakhtiari’s return would immediately solidify the left tackle position and the rest of the Packers offensive line entering the 2022 season.

It would also be a huge milestone for Bakhtiari.

After tearing his ACL and suffering other damage on Dec. 31, 2020, Bakhtiari labored through a nightmare rehab process and played in just one game last season. He needed a second clean-up surgery during the season in 2021 and then a third surgery before the offseason workout program this spring.

Despite returning to play parts of two quarters in Detroit in the season finale, Bakhtiari was inactive for the Packers’ playoff loss to the 49ers.

Elgton Jenkins’ status for Sunday is less certain. He is also coming back from a torn ACL. If ready, he would be expected to start at right tackle, forming a potentially elite tackle duo with Bakhtiari.