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‘Toughest offense I’ve had to learn’: Vikings excited to debut Kevin O’Connell’s scheme – InForum

EAGAN, Minn. — No one knows what Kevin O’Connell’s offensive scheme looks like in action. Not even the Vikings.

Though there’s certainly some things to draw on — like the fact that it looks very similar to what the Los Angeles Rams run under Sean McVay, or the fact that the Vikings have already showcased aspects of it in practices this summer — a majority of the new offense has been kept under wraps.

The unveiling will come in Sunday’s 3:25 p.m. season opener against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium.

“We love it,” star receiver Justin Jefferson said ahead of Thursday’s practice at TCO Performance Center in Eagan. “We’re excited to showcase it.”

It’s been a long road to this point.

Not long after O’Connell became head coach this winter, he started reaching out to various Vikings players to give them an idea of what things were going to look like. He started installing the new system at organized team activities in the spring, then worked on refining it at training camp in the summer.

And now, with the season upon them, the Vikings are starting to grasp a scheme that many consider to be extremely complex.

“It’s probably the toughest offense I’ve had to learn,” veteran receiver Adam Thielen said. “Things are starting to click a little bit. You’re not having to think as much, which obviously is huge in this league. You don’t want to be out there thinking.”

What’s made learning the new offense so difficult?

“Just a lot of verbiage,” Thielen said while explaining that some play calls are condensed down to a single word. “Sometimes playbooks are a lot of words and everybody knows what to do because (the words) are tagged or everyone is told what to do through a play call. This offense is a lot more memorization.”

Not to mention, it comes with a big playbook with a lot of formations and such designed to look the same before the snap.

“It takes time,” franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins said. “Every day we’re putting the work in to build a great foundation.”

Though it seems like everybody is slowly but surely starting to get on the same page, with the Vikings opting to rest pretty much every starter in their three preseason games, nobody can say with 100 percent certainty what the new offense is going to look like.

Not once has O’Connell relayed a play call to Cousins during a game. Nor has Cousins thrown a pass to Jefferson or Thielen in a game situation.

“Just getting to Week 1 will be a big thing for us to see how (O’Connell) calls the game,” Thielen said. “There are different situations that don’t necessarily come up a lot in practice that we have to be in the game to realize. I’m excited about that, to see how it kind of looks.”

Asked about not playing in the preseason, Jefferson admitted it has been tough to stay patient. He’s been anxiously waiting to get a glimpse of the new offense, and he seems confident that O’Connell is going to put everybody in a good position to succeed.

“Just seeing what the Rams did last season, I just feel confident that he’s going to be calling some great plays,” Jefferson said. “He knows the personnel. He knows who we are as receivers. He knows where to get us the ball and when we need it.”

All-pro running back Dalvin Cook has been extremely secretive about how he’s going to be used in the new offense. Asked about his usage once again earlier this week, Cook continued to play his cards close to the vest.

“You never know with the game of football,” he said with a laugh while setting up the punchline. “I might throw it.”

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Bill Simmons Finally Wises Up To The Packers

Green Bay Packer fans have gotten used to the haters. The past few years, as Aaron Rodgers’ Hall of Fame career has wound down, they have come out of the woodwork to criticize everything from coaching decisions, to former and current general managers, to anything even remotely Rodgers related.

Yes the Green and Gold have been on constant spin on every sports argument show on the planet, and doubting them always seems to be in vogue. Rodgers even addressed the constant doubting after Wednesday’s practice.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t worried about his division rivals taking away the crown. 👀 pic.twitter.com/feo41XeMmB

— theScore (@theScore) September 8, 2022

If one were to make a Mount Rushmore of mainstream media Packer haters, I don’t know if Bill Simmons would be the most prominent face on the mountain but he certainly would be one of the four being carved.

Bill simmons analysis so laughable like “the packers have great players and are at home, but for some reason I think they’re super beatable”… always has to make up some faux justification for hating on us cuz he knows Rodge is way better than Brady lmao pathetic

— giannislover420 (@gunslingerluke) January 11, 2021

“There’s something untrustworthy about this Packers team,” says Bill Simmons of a 13-3 team with 6 All-Pros and the presumptive MVP winner. Insightful!

— sam’s burner (@samsburner1) January 11, 2021

Bill Simmons told me that the mystique around the Packers was gone. https://t.co/aPZ6Fp5HOt

— 🎲 (@tweetless21) September 6, 2019

Every single season Simmons finds a way to doubt the Packers and criticize Rodgers regardless of the facts. But maybe, just maybe this year he’s learned his lesson.

In an appearance on Mina Kimes Podcast, Simmons didn’t take the bait when discussing the Packers and their potential.

After discussing his belief that this season will reveal how responsible Rodgers was for Davante Adams success, he explained that the Packers are his Super Bowl team:

People are trying to pour dirt on the Packers, or at least in some corners and I’m not going to go there yet. You know because they don’t have receivers. People are making the leap like Minnesota can steal the division.

Here’s my prediction, if they win this game I think they’re going to be undefeated heading into week 8 in Buffalo.

I think they’re the best. They’re the safest bet for the NFC pick. Gun to your head, your life depended on it you have to because the only thing you would say against them would be: I’m worried about the receivers. But you can see the road map where they ride the Jones Dillon combo. Which is an amazing running back combo right? So much flexibility. Those guys can catch out of the backfield, they cann block and it’s Rogers so they’re probably the safest bet.

It wasn’t quite a Lambeau leap, but for a man who spent the better part of the last few years doubting the team it was quite the turnaround.

Kimes, who has the Bucs in the Super Bowl over the Packers, still made a point to also give a ton of credit to the team Green Bay will be putting on the field this year.

I’ve been really high on the Packers defense all offseason. I think they’re going to be really special. I think they have one of the best secondaries in football. I think up front I’m maybe the world’s biggest Kenny Clark fan and they made additions that are going to open things up for him.

Fortunately, we are finally moving from prognosticating and guessing season to actual football season. And although it can be nice to see the so-called experts finally have some faith in your favorite team, what will be far more nice is when they go out and do what everybody knows they’re capable of.



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Vikings open O’Connell era, aim for LaFleur-like Packers run | Sports

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — When Kevin O’Connell takes the field with the Minnesota Vikings for his first game as a head coach, the 37-year-old will carry with him the blank slate that’s one of the benefits of being a rookie in this high-pressure, much-coveted job.

O’Connell needn’t be concerned for now about being booed at home by impatient or inebriated fans. His play calls and game management will be closely scrutinized in the media, at the stadium and on the couch, sure, but even with a ready-made roster full of proven starters and more than a couple of stars, the heat won’t turn up every week he doesn’t win for a while.

Matt LaFleur hasn’t helped his cause.

No head coach in NFL history has fared better over his first three seasons than LaFleur, who will take his staggering 39-10 record with the Green Bay Packers and three NFC North titles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The last two of those first-place finishes came in a runaway, one reason why O’Connell is here as the successor to Mike Zimmer in this attempt by the Vikings to reset without rebuilding and retake the division they haven’t won since 2017.

“I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t going to be a little extra excited, a little bit more than just any other game,” said O’Connell, who was offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams last season. “This isn’t just any other game.”

LaFleur was also a first-timer when he was hired by the Packers at age 39, bringing a similar background of playing and coaching quarterback and serving as an offensive coordinator on the way up. He and O’Connell both held that role under Rams head coach Sean McVay (LaFleur in 2017 and O’Connell from 2020-21), and they have the same agent (Trace Armstrong).

“Just being around him at the owners’ meetings and knowing what Sean had to say about him, he’s a guy that I definitely respect,” LaFleur said. “He’s a guy that definitely carries himself the right way. He’s worked at it, and he’s deserving of this opportunity.”

NEW TARGETS

In his 18th season with Green Bay, his 15th as the starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers will be without his trusty go-to wide receiver following the departure of All-Pro Davante Adams. Allen Lazard, the leading returner at that position, is uncertain to play due to an ankle injury.

The possibilities for filling that production include two well-regarded rookies: Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Watson was drafted in the second round out of North Dakota State with the pick (No. 34 overall) traded to the Packers by the Vikings as they moved down to net another selection.

“I definitely feel like there’ll be a little bit of nerves, it being my first one,” said Watson, who was limited by a knee injury in training camp but fully participated in practice this week. “I’m confident in myself and confident in the playbook. If I do get the chance I feel like I’ll be ready to go.”

Doubs was a fourth-rounder out of Nevada.

“Our confidence is still high,” Doubs said. “Allen Lazard, regardless of if he plays or not, he’ll still push us the same way as he would if he was playing.”

NEW DIRECTIONS

The Vikings have an almost entirely new staff, with O’Connell bringing a new scheme with offensive coordinator Wes Phillips from the Rams. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has a 3-4-based system in place on the other side of the ball. Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels has supplied fresh energy and strategy as well.

This will also be Adam Stenavich’s first game as offensive coordinator for Green Bay and Rich Bisaccia’s debut as special teams coordinator. Bisaccia, who served as interim head coach for Las Vegas last season, was brought in to help fix a facet of the game that has lagged badly for the Packers in recent years.

New Vikings punt returner Jalen Reagor, who was acquired in a trade last week with Philadelphia, can attest to that. He had a 73-yard punt return touchdown as a rookie in 2020 against Green Bay.

“I’m salivating over this guy,” Daniels said. “This guy’s got some weight to him. He’s really hard to tackle. He has the ability to make you miss. He’s elusive, and obviously he has the home run speed to take it the distance. That’s what makes him so spooky.”

LEG UP

By all accounts, Vikings kicker Greg Joseph — whose 29-yard field goal as time expired gave Minnesota a 34-31 victory over Green Bay last season at U.S. Bank Stadium — had a strong training camp. Strong enough, actually, that O’Connell sounded open to extending Joseph’s range in games. The 28-year-old’s career long is 55 yards, one of seven 50-plus yarders he made in 2021.

“I have so much confidence in him. Our team does. I think it’s just a matter of that particular drive: Do we want to go for it in that area of the field? Do we want to try and pin our opponent deep and try to flip the field and get the ball back and play the field position game?” O’Connell said.

Packers kicker Mason Crosby, who spent training camp on the physically unable to perform list following arthroscopic knee surgery, has appeared in 241 consecutive regular season games.


More AP NFL coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL and https://twitter.com/AP_NFL

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Packers punt and kick return roles remain up for grabs before Week 1

The Green Bay Packers unofficial depth chart came out earlier this week, and second-year wide receiver Amari Rodgers was listed as the starting punt and kick return man. However, those jobs are not quite yet his.

The Packers punt and kick return roles remain up for grab prior to their Week 1 matchup with Minnesota

When special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia was meeting with reporters on Thursday, he said that Rodgers was rotating at those return positions with “a slew of guys.” Bisaccia also added that the job was not yet settled, and he would speak with Matt LaFleur as the week progresses.

As a rookie, Rodgers was the primary punt returner for the Packers, but he had his struggles. He was unreliable when it came to fielding the punts, and when he did do that successfully, he was often indecisive, which resulted in a minimal gain.

Overall, Rodgers averaged 8.0 yards per punt return, which ranked 23rd out of 36 eligible returners, according to PFF ($$). A few decent punt returns late in the season helped elevate his average.

The kick return duties belonged to Kylin Hill before his injury and Malik Taylor thereafter. Rodgers had only two kick return attempts while at Clemson.

This summer, however, Rodgers did look much more comfortable and decisive in that return man role throughout practice. On three preseason attempts, Rodgers averaged 27.7 yards as a kick returner, which included a 50-yard return but just 4.5 yards on two punt attempts–although it’s not like the blocking was all that great.

Possibly competing with Rodgers for these duties are Randall Cobb, Keisean Nixon, and Romeo Doubs, all of whom were listed behind him on the depth chart.

Cobb doesn’t have that playmaking ability that he once did, but he has experience and would provide stability, an element that shouldn’t be overlooked.

Doubs was a very effective punt returner at Nevada, averaging over 12 yards per return on 37 career attempts with a touchdown. Meanwhile, Nixon has just six career kick return attempts — and no punt return chances — averaging 14.0 yards per return.

Christian Watson, an All-American kick returner at North Dakota State, could be another option.

This is a Green Bay Packers team that may not score points at the same clip as they have in the past, and they’ll also be more reliant on their defense, all of which will make improved special teams play a must.



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Former Packers Wide Receiver Has Bold NFC North Prediction

A closeup of Greg Jennings on the field for the Green Bay Packers.

GREEN BAY, WI – SEPTEMBER 30: Wide receiver Greg Jennings #85 of the Green Bay Packers looks on prior to the start of the game against the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field on September 30, 2012 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Greg Jennings played for the Green Bay Packers far longer than the Minnesota Vikings. That’s not stopping him from picking a new NFC North champion this year.

On FS1’s First Things Firstthe former wide receiver pointed to his purple tie before touting the Vikings to win the division. He even called Kirk Cousins a “dark horse MVP candidate” under new head coach Kevin O’Connell.

“Offensively, this team is ready to roll,” Jennings said. “They have arguably the better back … They definitely have the better receiving corps.”

He then acknowledged that a big gap remains between Cousins and his former teammate, Aaron Rodgers, under center.

On one hand, it’s commendable that Jennings isn’t biased in favor of the Packers, who recently inducted him into their Hall of Fame.

After seven years with the Packers, Jennings jumped ship to their rival. While he scored 10 touchdowns in two seasons with the Vikings, he made two Pro Bowl appearances and cleared 1,000 receiving yards three times for Green Bay.

However, Packers fans may argue that he’s biased against them because of his fractured relationship with Rodgers.

Football fans will quickly get to see if Jennings is onto something, as the Vikings host the Packers this Sunday.

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How to Watch, Stream & Listen to Vikings-Packers 2022 Season Opener

Keep the Vikings nearby wherever you go with the Minnesota Vikings mobile app. A source for news and exclusive features, the app also will stream video broadcasts of games for people in the market/broadcast area of each game.

The Minnesota Vikings mobile app is available for iPhone and Android.

Click here for the full bevy of options that include over-the-air, cable, satellite, over-the-top and streaming methods.

Start your free trial of NFL Game Pass today to re-watch Vikings games on-demand. NFL Game Pass includes condensed games, live game-day audio, NFL programming and much more.

The Vikings are 56-64-3 all-time against the Packers (including 1-1 in postseason games). Minnesota is 4-2 against Green Bay at U.S. Bank Stadium and 30-30 all-time when hosting its rival.

Phillips on the decision for him to work games from the booth

After trying the views from the sideline and up top in the coaches’ booth, Phillips will be among the Vikings staff with an aerial view. The vantage point will allow him a beneficial perspective, and headsets will allow for communication between him and Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell.

“I would think my role as far as being in the booth is not going to be a lot different from, really, what it’s been throughout my career,” Phillips said. “Just being upstairs is a place where we felt like Kevin and I have kind of had that relationship going back [to Washington and Los Angeles]where I was in the booth.

“I’ve spent time on the sideline and in the booth everywhere I’ve been. But when I’ve been with Kevin, I’ve always been in the booth and kind of [adding] that voice from up top,” Phillips added. “Sometimes you get just a better vantage point and are able to get on the [Microsoft] Surface between series as opposed to standing there and trying to get pictures and all that. You get a chance to really have your spot, sit down, really study the pictures, and kind of give suggestions – whether it be run game, pass game, things that we might be able to exploit or tendencies we’re seeing.”

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Vikings Underdogs Against Packers in Week 1

Packers 26, Vikings 23 — Staff, Bleacher Report

For starters, the Minnesota Vikings have a new coaching staff led by Kevin O’Connell, who may push the tempo offensively. They’ll face a Green Bay Packers team that must adjust without two-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, whom the club traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in March.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have an elite perimeter playmaker, but Head Coach Matt LaFleur could transform his offense into a ground-heavy attack, which doesn’t bode well for a Vikings defense that ranked 26th against the run in 2021. He called running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon 1A and 1A in the backfield.

Sure, Za’Darius Smith can rush the passer, but the Vikings may need more than the addition of nose tackle Harrison Phillips to stop Jones and Dillon.

Packers 28, Vikings 22 — Bill Bender, Sporting News

This is a tough one to pick. Aaron Rodgers has an unproven group of receivers at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is one of the tougher venues. The Vikings have a new coach in Kevin O’Connell, and Kirk Cousins will be aggressive with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Packers are 2-4 in their past six trips to Minnesota. This won’t be easy, but we’ll trust Rodgers to be better than last year’s Week 1 disaster.

Vikings 24, Packers 20 — Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings predictions, picks for NFL Week 1

To kick off their 2022 NFL regular season, Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers will take a trip to Minnesota to face Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. game at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Davante Adams is no longer in the fold for Green Bay, but how will Rodgers and the Packers’ offense be affected? Green Bay is favored to win the NFC North title in 2022. But Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and the Vikings will have something to say about that. Minnesota also has the fresh energy of first-time coach Kevin O’Connell.

Here’s a look at the betting details and USA TODAY’s NFL staff picks for the Packers vs. Vikings game:

Packers at Vikings odds, moneyline and over/under

Play to win $25K: USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool

Team-by-team record projections:Predicting the 2022 records for every NFL team

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Super Bowl Predictions:Season predictions from USA TODAY staff: Super Bowl 57, playoffs, MVP and more

Lorenzo Reyes: Packers 26, Vikings 20

I love riding the Packers early in the season; in their last six games in September, the Pack are 5-1 against the spread. Minnesota’s roster has talent across the board, but I think with a first-time coach in Kevin O’Connell, there may be a bit of a learning curve.

Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers thorws during the second half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Safid Deen: Packers 28, Vikings 24

Aaron Rodgers will find life without Davante Adams difficult in the opener, while Vikings stars Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook get off to fast starts in new Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. I’ll take Minnesota at home in this one.

Lance Pugmire: Vikings 28, Packers 23

Aaron Rodgers is just 7-7 at Minnesota, and the Vikings will deploy a star-studded offense of Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson to seize the series lead. The major Green Bay question is how to replace Davante Adams. Here comes the first clue.

NFL power rankings:Which teams look like Super Bowl 57 contenders entering Week 1 of 2022 season?

Get your fantasy squad off to hot start:Week 1 fantasy football rankings

Coaches on notice:These NFL head coaches are on hot seat even before Week 1

NFL Salaries: These are the highest-paid NFL players

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Packers Rumors: Rashan Gary Could Be Extended Before Week 1

Rashan Gary Extension Rumors

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ESPN’s Dan Graziano has dubbed the Packers candidates to sign a “high-end extension” with star edge rusher Rashan Gary before Week 1 gets underway.

The NFL traditionally has a wave of contract extensions that get finalized just before the start of a new season every year, and it is possible the Green Bay Packers could have one among them heading into the start of 2022.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano emptied his notebook on September 8 and discussed some of the “league chatter” he has heard in recent weeks about possible extensions in the works for star players. Among them, he mentioned that Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary as a candidate to receive “high-end extension” before the team begins its 2022 season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 11.

Gary, a 2019 first-round pick, is coming off a breakout season for the Packers in which he notched 81 total pressures — second-most in the NFL behind Maxx Crosby — along with a career-high 10 sacks and 56 quarterback hurries. According to Pro Football Focus, he posted the seventh-highest pass-rushing grade (88.9) and the second-best win rate (26.0) among edge rushers during the 2021 season.

Other players Graziano mentioned could be in line for extensions before Week 1 gets fully underway include Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson, Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, Cincinnati Bengals offensive tackle Jonah Williams, Los Angeles Rams safety Taylor Rapp and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller.

The Packers will kick off their 2022 season on the road against the Vikings at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.


Gary Currently Set to Play 2023 on Fifth-Year Option

Bet $5, Automatically Win $150 on Tonight’s NFL Opener

The Packers picked up Gary’s fifth-year option for the 2023 season back at the NFL deadline and are currently projected to pay him a salary of $11.5 million next season under the option, but both sides will likely want to get a long-term deal in place well before then. Gary has become a central part of the Packers’ young core of defenders and will seek to be paid accordingly, while an extension could also grant Green Bay some cap relief depending on the structure and overall value of the contract.

That said, it won’t be cheap for the Packers to sign Gary to a new contract.

According to Spotrac’s calculated market value projections, Gary is estimated to earn an average salary of $20.5 million on his next contract on a deal that could be as many as four or five years long. He might not touch the highest rungs of edge-rusher pay with T.J. Watt ($28 million per year) and Joey Bosa ($27 million per year) leading the pack, but another dominant year in 2022 could see him breach the top five at the position.

Interestingly enough, Watt signed his record-breaking contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers on the day of the first game of last year’s regular season — September 9, 2021. The Packers have typically gotten their high-profile extensions done before or during training camp in previous years, such as they did with Kenny Clark in 2020 or with Jaire Alexander earlier this year. Nothing suggests they wouldn’t be willing to put pen to paper on contracts near the start of or during the season, though.

Don’t forget, they signed David Bakhtiari to a record-breaking extension in November 2020 in the midst of a push for a first-round bye in the playoffs.


Who Else Could Be in Line for Extensions With Packers?

Amos Extension Rumors

Adrian Amos (#31) will be a free agent in 2023 and might also be looking for a new contract from the Packers.

The Packers have a few other players who could be negotiating with them throughout the course of the 2022 season. Free safety Darnell Savage Jr. — a first-round pick from the same 2019 class as Gary — is also due to play next season on a fifth-year option and will most likely want to get something more concrete done before then.

Another candidate is veteran strong safety Adrian Amos. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent when the 2023 league year begins next March, but he is still under 30 years old and has played extremely well for the Packers secondary since joining them in 2019 free agency. Pro Football Focus ranked Amos at No. 40 among their 50 best players for the 2022 season and thinks quite highly of his abilities.

“Amos is one of the most underrated players in the game and has a real argument to be seen as the league’s best safety or, at the very least, one of the best,” PFF’s Sam Monson wrote on July 22. “He has never had a bad season in the NFL, recording seven pass breakups along with three interceptions this past year. He has missed fewer than 10% of his tackle attempts in each of his past three campaigns.”

Other players who could be candidates to sign new deals over the next several months include Pro Bowl offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins, tight end Robert Tonyan Jr. and wide receiver Allen Lazard and offensive tackle Yosh Nijman.

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NFL odds Week 1: Bettors bullish on Bills, down on Packers and Cowboys

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

NFL Week 1 betting, I’d like you to meet college football Week 2 betting. I know you’ve met previously, pretty much every year at this time. But I figure it’s just good manners to reintroduce you to each other with the big football weekend ahead.

Across this great nation, sports bettors are undoubtedly eager for this reunion. It all starts Thursday night, with the NFL regular-season opener between the Buffalo Bills and defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

There are plenty more compelling NFL matchups to follow and, of course, wager on. And on Saturday, we get a treat with Alabama vs. Texas. Let’s dive into what I’m hearing from my sources.

The following are a handful of NFL Week 1 and college football Week 2 betting nuggets for your consideration.

Bettors Bullish on Bills

It’s been the theme of the offseason at sportsbooks everywhere. Bettors can’t get enough of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are wildly popular, whether it’s Super Bowl odds, the win total or season-long player props.

The same holds in the NFL Week 1 odds market. Most oddsmakers are absolutely rooting for the Los Angeles Rams, who are 2- or 2.5-point home underdogs, depending on where you shop. At DraftKings, for example, the point-spread ticket count is 2-1 on the road favorite Buffalo, and point-spread money is running 3-1 in favor of the Bills.

But interestingly, it’s a little different at The SuperBook.

“We have more tickets on the Bills, but more money on the Rams,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. “So as we stand right now, Bills Mafia covering the 2.5 would be good for us. In an ideal world, the Bills cover and the [total] goes Under, as we have about a 3-1 ticket count in favor of the Over right now.”

All that noted, it’s worth reminding that on NFL games, the large majority of money comes in on game day, and even more so in the final hour leading up to kickoff. Things can change in a hurry.

“A lot can happen in the next 24 hours,” Degnon said Wednesday night. “I feel like we will see more Bills money as we get closer to kick.”

Go Fish

Another recurring theme heard from both oddsmakers behind the counter and sharp bettors on our side of the counter is that there’s little respect for the New England Patriots. And in the case of NFL Week 1 odds, rising respect for the Miami Dolphins.

“In Week 1, Miami -2.5 is by far my No. 1 play,” one professional bettor noted.

And that bettor was smart enough to get the best of the number. The Dolphins touched -4 this week at a few major sportsbooks and are currently -3.5 everywhere.

Oddsmakers are somewhat taken aback by the Patriots-Dolphins action.

“The Dolphins betting is more one-sided than I would’ve expected. Public and sharp money is all to that side,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.

The SuperBook opened Miami -3 way back in May. Bettors could’ve gotten Dolphins -2.5 from late July to late August. The SuperBook returned to -3 Aug. 28 and went to -3.5 Tuesday.

Roll Tide

Alabama vs. Texas – on FOX with a noon ET Saturday kickoff – is easily the most interesting matchup on the college football Week 2 odds board.

The Tide was listed as a 16-point favorite by some oddsmakers after Saturday’s games, but the line moved quickly after being hammered by some sharp money. Alabama is currently a 20-point road favorite, with plenty more time for public money to roll in on the Crimson Tide.

Sure, the Longhorns got an easy Week 1 home win, 52-10 over lightweight Louisiana-Monroe. But Andy Molitor, a savvy college football bettor, and director of content for Betsperts.com, said the Longhorns’ rout wasn’t very impressive. Molitor noted that Texas QB Quinn Ewers made a host of mistakes that were masked by the blowout win. And while there’s no doubt that Bijon Robinson is a star running back, Molitor thinks Alabama will be up to that challenge.

More so on Saturday in Austin, when it comes to that healthy point spread, Molitor thinks it’ll be a matter of how much mercy Alabama coach Nick Saban has on Texas coach – and former Bama assistant – Steve Sarkisian.

“Beyond any stats, figures or comparisons you can make for arguing the handicap on this game, there’s one simple fact: Alabama covers this -20 if Nick Saban wants to,” Molitor said. “The path for an underdog price getting home is Alabama calling off the dogs. And seeing how often that’s occurred when Coach Saban plays former assistants, I’m not so hopeful.

Still, three touchdowns is a lot to stomach on the road in front of a massive crowd in Austin.

“Perhaps bettors will call on the Old Reliable and take the Crimson Tide to cover the first-half line of -11.5, and not worry about the team taking off the entire fourth quarter. That’ll be my strategy: Bank on ‘Bama to come out, punch the hosts in the mouth, and keep punching them until the halftime whistle blows.”

FWIW, that’ll be my strategy too. Last week, I made the very square bet of Alabama -28 first half vs. Utah State. Alabama led 41-0 at the break. #ChilisMoney. Granted, hosting Utah State is nothing like traveling to Texas. I’ll lay the 11.5 with the Crimson Tide, just the same.

Baker vs. the Browns

Baker Mayfield is no longer with the Cleveland Browns. But as fate and the football gods would have it, Mayfield was traded to the Carolina Panthers – who open the season at home Sunday against … the Browns.

Months ago, the Browns opened as 3.5-point road favorites when it looked like perhaps Deshaun Watson would start at quarterback. But Watson’s off-field legal issues have him serving a 10-game suspension. So the line flipped, ultimately getting as far as Panthers -2.5, and Carolina is now -1.5.

“I played Carolina -1 a while back,” the aforementioned sharp NFL bettor said. “Carolina looks solid, and Mayfield is comfortable, and I believe Cleveland will be offensively challenged with Jacoby Brissett at QB.”

One-Way Action

Over at PointsBet USA, sports analyst Mike Korn pointed to two games that could be trouble spots for oddsmakers and big boons for bettors: the Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets and Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks.

The Ravens and Broncos are taking the majority of tickets and money on standard point-spread bets. And bettors are indeed popping both teams into their parlays, moneyline parlays, and teasers.

Baltimore opened -4.5 on the road and is now up to -7.5 at PointsBet USA. Denver opened at -4.5 and is up to -6.5 in a game pitting new Broncos QB Russell Wilson against his former team on Monday Night Football.

“Denver and Baltimore are definitely going to be the most lopsided action,” Korn said.

The Broncos were drawing 93% of point-spread tickets and 85% of point-spread money at PointsBet as of Wednesday night. And the Ravens were seeing 94% of spread tickets and 93% of spread money. No question, the books need the Jets and Seahawks to at least cover the spread. Of course, an outright upset would be even more welcome behind the counter.

Down on Dallas … and Others

Regular-season win totals are among the most popular season-long NFL prop bets. The simplicity contributes to its popularity. Oddsmakers set each team’s win total, and the bettor just has to decide if that team will hit the Over or Under on that total.

The Dallas Cowboys, being America’s Team and all, are certainly popular in all betting markets, including season win totals. But with Dallas set to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 1, the Cowboys are popular in a way they’d probably rather not be, at least at BetMGM.

The Boys’ win total opened at 10.5, with the Over/Under a pick ’em – both Over 10.5 and Under 10.5 were priced at -110. Now, Under 10.5 is a -165 favorite, and the Cowboys are taking the second-most Under tickets of any team in the league.

The only team taking more Under bets? The Chicago Bears, who opened at 6.5 (Over -140) and are down to 5.5 (Over -145).

Nos. 3, 4 and 5 in most Under tickets: the Seattle Seahawks, with a win total of 5.5, Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5) and Tennessee Titans (9.5). The top five teams in Over tickets: Detroit Lions (6.5), New Orleans Saints (8.5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5), Miami Dolphins (8.5) and Las Vegas Raiders (8.5).

Tepid Packers Support

For years, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have drawn plenty of betting support. And that will likely be the case this season, but the Week 1 support is more modest than usual. The Packers open at the rival Minnesota Vikings and are consensus 1.5-point favorites for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.

At DraftKings, Green Bay is seeing 67% of early spread bets and 61% of early spread money.

Interestingly, PointsBet USA has the line a tick higher than pretty much every other book, with Green Bay a 2-point favorite. But the ticket count and money count are split, with the Pack drawing 60% of spread bets and the Vikes 63% of spread money.

However, you can bank on the Packers landing on lots of parlay and moneyline parlay tickets. The bookmakers would love to see a Vikings outright home win to bust up those parlays.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Some noteworthy major wagers at BetMGM, ahead of NFL Week 1:

— $300,000 on the Dolphins +135 to make the playoffs. To win $435,000

— $900,000 on the Dolphins -250 to win more than 7.5 games. To win $360,000

— $25,000 on the Saints +4000 to win the Super Bowl. To win $1 million

— $10,000 on the Dolphins +4000 to win the Super Bowl. To win $400,000

— $20,000 on the Bills +600 to win the Super Bowl. To win $120,000.

And how about a few real fliers, as well:

— $5,000 on the Jets +8000 to win the AFC. To win $400,000

— $5,000 on the Jets 150/1 to win the Super Bowl. To win $750,000

— $250 on the Arizona Cardinals 300/1 to go 17-0. To win $75,000

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.


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